Consider methods of statistical data analysis
Analysis technique is the dialectical method of cognition, the path of research of their subject, that is, economic and financial processes and phenomena in their interconnection and interdependence.
Characteristic features of the method of analysis are:
using the system of analytical indicators which are comprehensively characterize financial and economic activities of the organization;
the study of the causes of changes in these indicators;
identifying and measuring causal relationships between them.
The method of analysis is the system of rules and requirements that guarantee the effective application of the method.
In the aggregate, method and methodology represent the methodological basis of economic analysis.
All analytical methods can be grouped into two large groups: qualitative (logical) and quantitative (formal).
Qualitative (informal, logical) methods are analytical techniques and methods based on logical thinking, the use of professional Analytics experience, professional intuition. These include:
the method of comparison;
method of construction of analytical tables.
method of construction of the system of analytical indicators;
the method of expert evaluations;
scenario method;
psychological and morphological methods, etc.
Quantitative (formal) methods are techniques that use mathematics. As a result of their application can get quite an accurate result or a few results for further selection of faithful, with the help of logical methods.
Quantitative methods can be divided into accounting, statistical, classical methods of analysis, economic-mathematical, etc.
Analyzing financial statements, you can use different methods (and logic, and formal). But the most frequently used methods of financial analysis are:
method absolute, relative and average values;
the method of comparison;
vertical analysis;
horizontal analysis;
trend analysis;
factor analysis;
analysis using financial ratios;
the method of expert evaluations.
In the process of collecting data to get information about the values of certain features that characterize each unit, each element of the investigated process or phenomenon (population). This information is usually presented in the form of indicators. Generic measures may be absolute, relative and average. The diverse characteristics of all sides of the studied economic processes and phenomena can be given only by means of all kinds of General indicators. However. each of the indicators has a value and occupies an important place in the analytical process.
Absolute indicators describe the number, the volume (size) of the studied process. They always have some unit of measurement: natural, semi-natural, cost (money).
Natural units of measurement used in cases when the unit of measure with the consumer properties of the product. For example, the production of fabric is estimated, in meters, of agricultural production in quintals and tonnes, etc.^{5}
Natural indicators can be composite. For example, waste employees time is counted in man-days and man-hours, and motor transport freight turnover in ton-km, etc.
If some types of products have common consumer property, then generalized the results for the production of different types of products can be obtained using semi-natural units. In this case, one of the types is taken as a single measure, while others are given to that meter using appropriate conversion factors. For example, the production of the cannery is measured in Tubes (in thousands of standard cans).
When the level of the enterprise or industry summarizes the credentials, the widely used value (cash) absolute figures. These include, for example, include: the unit price of products; revenues from sales of products, works and services; expenditure and profit, amount of debt etc.
It should also be noted that the absolute values or get the direct calculation of the collected data, or by calculation.
The estimated absolute indicator, for example, is absolute deviation. It is the difference between two absolute figures of the same name:
where P — absolute value of the index during the reporting period; P0 — the value of the absolute index in the base period; DP — absolute deviation (change) indicator.
Relative indicators represent the ratio of the absolute (or relative) indicators, i.e. the number of units of one index per one unit of another indicator. Relative values are the ratio of various indicators at the same time, but the same indicator at different points (e.g., growth rate).
Relative values are used in different types of analysis depending on the specific economic problem, they facilitate the process of financial analysis. Depending on the analytical task can use different types of relative values.
The mapping can eponymous key figures relating to different periods, different objects or different regions. The result of this comparison:
1) coefficient (the base of comparison is taken as a unit) or
2) is expressed in percentage and shows how many times or how much interest compare the index is greater than (less than) basic.
The result of the ratio of similar indicators can be the following relative performance.
1. The relative magnitude of the dynamics that characterize the change process in time, and show how many times the increased (decreased) level of the investigated parameter compared to a previous time period. The relative magnitude of the dynamics can be calculated in fractions of a unit (odds) when the compared value is divided by a base of comparison. If we multiply the resulting coefficient of fraction at 100%, get the match percentage.
where P, is the value of the index during the reporting period; P0 — the value of the index in the base period.
The answer to the question: “how much interest has changed indicator in the reporting period compared to the base?” can be obtained by calculating the rate of increase (decrease). The relative velocity magnitude is calculated as the difference between the magnitude of the growth rate, expressed in percent and 100%.
The rate of increase ( + ) reduction (-) =
2. A relative value structure characterizes the share of individual parts in the overall volume of the aggregate. It is calculated as the ratio of the number of units in a separate part of the aggregate of the total number of units (or volume) of the entire set. The relative values of the structure referred to as specific gravity or shares and is calculated usually as a percentage to the totality or in fractions of a unit.
where P, is the value of the individual parts of the whole; P” — the totality (the whole).
4. The relative value of clarity characterize the result of comparison of similar indicators, relating to the same period of time, but to different objects or areas. These relative values are used for comparative evaluation of the results of the activities of individual companies in the industry or to assess the level of development of different regions. They are estimated either in percent or in fraction, showing how many times one of the compared values are greater (lower) than the other.
5. Another kind of relative values is the result of the matching of opposite absolute values. These include the relative value of the intensity. Among them are such important factors, reflecting a qualitative aspect of activity of the enterprise or organization, as the financial efficiency ratios, return on assets, capital to labour ratio, materialattach, profitability or other activity, and so These values are calculated usually in fractions of a unit (at least in percentage, for example, profitability) and are so called named numbers (i.e. have a specific name). An important feature is the mapping of opposite absolute values. For example, the turnover rate (returns) of equity capital is the ratio of revenue from sales of products (goods) to the average cost of equity and the return on sales is the ratio of profit from sales to the amount of the proceeds received from the sale of products. In the numerator and in the denominator of these coefficients of opposite indices.
So, relative values is one of the most important ways of generalization and analysis of economic information. In the process of financial analysis absolute and relative values should be considered in conjunction, i.e. to use relative values so you need to have a clear idea of what absolute value is for each relative indicator. It is also necessary to observe the comparability of the compared value and the value taken as a base of comparison.
The average value is an important special statistic used to summarize the data. The average value is a measure of the “middle” or “center” of the studied data. It is a General characteristic of the studied trait in the analyzed set of data and reflects the typical level per unit of population in a given place and time.
The arithmetic average value is defined as the ratio of the sum of all values number of them. The average value is denoted either by the letter Af (x) is an abbreviation for Average (average).
But most often the median value is denoted by any letter, but must feature at the top. For example, P or X.
where X are the individual characteristic value of each unit together;
n is the number of population units.
When calculating the average value we abstract from the individual characteristics of the separate components of the aggregate and Express the shared properties inherent in all parts of the aggregate. Mean value excludes the impact of individual causes and concentrates patterns due to common causes. The main condition for the use of the average value is the qualitative uniformity of the aggregate, which calculated the average. Only under this condition the average value reflects the common, typical, natural, common to all the analyzed parts together.
In the analysis of financial statements the average values used in the calculation of many indicators. For example, when determining the average value of the receivable or payable of the enterprise in the reporting period for calculation of the repayment period, or in determining the average value of inventory for the analysis of the turnover, tangible assets, etc.
There are two categories of average values: average power (arithmetic average, harmonic average, geometric average, the average chronological, etc.), as well as the structural average (mode and median). The choice of the average values depends on the purpose of analysis of the economic essence of the average and of the nature of the source data.
In the analysis of financial statements is typically used arithmetic mean value (simple and weighted) or the variation — the average chronological. Along with these values can also be calculated and other types of medium.
Imagine a calculation formula different types of averages commonly used in practical analysis.
where X are the individual characteristic value of each unit together;
n is the number of population units;
k — the frequency of repetitions of individual characteristic value (its weight).
Structural average is the mode and median.
Fashion is a medium obtained by setting a most frequent value in the data set. Define fashion it is possible only for a sufficiently large number of observations, and provided that one of the individual values of the analyzed attribute of individual population units is repeated more often than other values.
The comparison method is the most ancient, the logical method of analysis. The question of comparison is solved by the principle of “better or worse”, “more or less”. This is largely due to the peculiarities of human psychology that compares pairs of objects. When comparing the use of different techniques, such as scales. There are four main characteristics of the scales:
description;
order;
distance;
the presence of the starting point.
The description assumes the use of a single descriptor — opoznavatel measured characteristics of the object for each gradation in the scale. For example, such descriptors can be: “Yes or no”; “there or not”, “number of rubles”, etc.
The order describes the relative size of the descriptor, for example: “is greater than”, “less than”, “equal”. Not all scales possess order characteristics. For example, you cannot say “more” or “less” to compare the “buyer” with “no buyer”.
Distance is a characteristic scale, showing the absolute difference between the descriptors, which can be expressed in quantitative terms. For example, the company that acquired three machines, bought two machines in comparison with the company, purchased a single machine. First, the company purchased equipment “is greater than” the second. The “distance” between the scales in this case is equal to two machines.
Starting point. It is considered that the scale has a starting point, if it has only one beginning. This can be the zero point. For example, the age scale has a zero point associated with the birth, but not all of the scale of the measured properties of the zero point.^{6}
According to the results of the work, note the following:
Absolute in statistics referred to as the total generalized indicators characterizing the dimensions (levels, volumes) of social phenomena in a given place and time.
There are two types of absolute statistical values: individual and total. Absolute statistical values are named numbers, i.e. any unit of measurement.
On a relative scale of comparison is called indicators, representing the quotient of the same name absolute statistical values describing different objects (firms, areas, region, country, etc.) and relating to the same period (or moment) of time. For example, the ratio between the levels of the cost of certain kind of products produced at the two plants between the levels of labour productivity in different countries (with the same technique account).
Isakov S. A., Sokol S. M., Hulak, M. L. Theory of probability and mathematical statistics. Educational-methodical manual. – Bryansk: Bryansk branch of the legal Institute of the Ministry of internal Affairs of the Russian Federation, 1999
Savyuk L. K. Legal statistics. – M.: Publishing house “Law College of Moscow state University”, 1996
Statistics: lectures / Kharchenko L. P., Dolzhenkova V. G. and others; Under the editorship of K. E. S. V. G. Ionin. – Novosibirsk: publishing house of Ngaeiu, M.: Infra-M, 1998
1 Isakov S. A., Sokol S. M., Hulak, M. L. Theory of probability and mathematical statistics. Educational-methodical manual. – Bryansk: Bryansk branch of the legal Institute of the Ministry of internal Affairs of the Russian Federation, 1999
2 Isakov S. A., Sokol S. M., Hulak, M. L. Theory of probability and mathematical statistics. Educational-methodical manual. – Bryansk: Bryansk branch of the legal Institute of the Ministry of internal Affairs of the Russian Federation, 1999
3
4 Statistics: lectures / Kharchenko L. P., Dolzhenkova V. G. and others; Under the editorship of K. E. S. V. G. Ionin. – Novosibirsk: publishing house of Ngaeiu, M.: Infra-M, 1998
5 Savyuk L. K. Legal statistics. – M.: Publishing house “Law College of Moscow state University”, 1996
6 Statistics: lectures / Kharchenko L. P., Dolzhenkova V. G. and others; Under the editorship of K. E. S. V. G. Ionin. – Novosibirsk: publishing house of Ngaeiu, M.: Infra-M, 1998